Disintegrating Republic of Congo

Last month, the Rwanda-backed March 23 Movement (M23) set up shadow administrations in key areas it has conquered in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The rebels are closer to taking full control of the region’s minerals, especially its coltan reserves, which according to UN observers at the end of last year were providing them with $800,000 a month.

The M23 declared a ceasefire at the beginning of February but continued its territorial expansion. After taking Goma in North Kivu at the end of January, by mid-February the rebels had seized control of Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu. The M23 and its allies in the Congo River Alliance have made threats to march on Kinshasa and overthrow Félix Tshisekedi’s administration, but no one thinks they are serious about seizing power in the capital. ‘Their aim was to gain control of the minerals’ extraction and trade,’ one government source told me

Tshisekedi finally agreed to negotiate with the rebels, whom he used to call ‘terrorists’ and ‘puppets of Rwanda’, and sent a delegation to the Angolan capital, Luanda, on 18 March. But the talks never took place as the rebels refused to travel, in protest at EU sanctions. Tshisekedi also agreed to meet the Rwandan president, Paul Kagame, in Doha, the capital of Qatar. The two leaders called for an immediate ceasefire. But the rebels said they were not concerned about the outcomes of the Qatar meeting, and vowed to fight on.

At least two-thirds of the world’s reserves of cobalt (used in electric car batteries) and coltan (from which tantalum is extracted to make capacitors for phones, laptops and other devices), as well as half the world’s copper reserves, are found in the DRC. There are also deposits of gold, manganese, tin, zinc, lead, cadmium, tungsten, silver, uranium, diamonds, oil and gas. The DRC’s vast natural resources also include most of the Congo river basin, with over 150 million hectares of rainforest (home to more than ten thousand animal species), and 80 million hectares of arable land (of which only 10 per cent is used).

In nearly thirty years of conflict, over six million people have been killed and more than seven million have been displaced. Some commentators blame the latest escalation on an agreement signed last year by the European Union and Rwanda ‘to nurture sustainable and resilient value chains for critical raw materials’. A government source in Kinshasa told me that ‘the aim of the West and its African puppets is to remote control these pieces of the Republic with a view to quenching their appetite for natural resources.’ The source warned of rising anti-Western sentiment in the DRC because of the West’s ‘complicity’ in the war.

But Poorva Karkare at the European Centre for Policy Development Management disputes this view. ‘To reduce the M23 to minerals is not only short-sighted but also dangerous,’ she told me, ‘because it can lead to poor policies and failed peace efforts’:

Apart from the fact that it doesn’t address the grievances that are the root of the conflict, the whole minerals narrative is also grounded in a sense of White Saviourism where the conflict in a third country can somehow be arbitrated by policies (whether affecting the producers or consumers) in the West.

For any resolution of the conflict the rebel group’s grievances, irrespective of the support they get from Rwanda, need to be taken into account, because first and foremost, the rebel group is made of Congolese nationals and their agency needs to be acknowledged. I am not saying that there is no smuggling of minerals, there certainly is, but whether that’s the main reason for the M23 is highly questionable. And therefore what the EU can and should do in this case also needs to be carefully assessed.

Karkare wouldn’t comment on the ‘disintegration’ of the DRC, though she did say that the appointment of M23 administrators in Goma implied that the rebel group planned to be around for a while, and was trying to win the support of the local population. ‘If the Kinshasa government genuinely wants to show that the M23 is not the answer,’ Karkare said, ‘it needs to do this through better governance in these provinces, because clearly their military interventions have not only failed but also resulted in more chaos.’

A source in the army told me that, as things stood, the disintegration of the DRC was inevitable: ‘Congo is betrayed by the Congolese themselves. The balkanisation project could not have been successful if local politicians and business people weren’t motivated by personal interests and the appetite to enrich themselves, rather than to develop the country and improve people’s lives.’

For the past six decades, under the Mobutu dictatorship and since, Congo’s presidential protection units have been well paid, equipped and motivated. ‘While they did this,’ the source said, ‘the regular army was crumbling, compounded by under-equipment, inadequate training, hunger, stress and precarious working conditions – lack of uniforms, torn boots, $100 per month wage and $50 bonus which are paid after long months of delays.’

These troops are not prepared for war. ‘Videos circulating on social media show DRC soldiers fleeing rather than fight the M23 rebels,’ the army source told me. ‘Instead of addressing the core problems (building, restructuring, reorganising the army), the government is getting these deserters arrested and prosecuted.’ Last summer a military tribunal sentenced 25 soldiers to death for desertion, and a further 13 early this year.

‘For a long time,’ Kakare said, ‘Kinshasa has viewed the army as a potential threat … A capable army – that may mount a coup – is not in the political interests of the president. The army has not only been underinvested in, but also sent to the eastern regions, far away so that it cannot pose a threat to Kinshasa. While Tshisekedi had promised reforms in the army, with time he has valued loyalty over competence.’

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